Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Nov. 10, 2022
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
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Awards Circuit (Film Column) Archives
- How Ke Huy Quan’s Soulful Role Can Win ‘Everything’ This Awards Season
- My Daughter Wants ‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’ to Win Best Picture, So Why Can’t Her Wish Come True?
- ‘Wakanda Forever’ Star Angela Bassett Could Be the First Oscar-Nominated Actor From the Marvel Cinematic Universe
- Why Foreign-Language Films Still Struggle to Get U.S. Oscar Voters’ Attention
- ‘Apollo 10½’ and ‘Marcel the Shell’ Prove the Academy Needs to Embrace the Evolution of Animation
- Will ‘She Said’ Hit Too Close to Home for Oscar Voters?
- Nice Guys (and Gals) Finish First? How Likability and Popularity Help Oscar Contenders
- All Quiet on the ‘White Noise’ Front: 5 Reasons Why Noah Baumbach’s Film is Struggling to Build Oscars Buzz
- After the Slap, Is Will Smith Allowed to Be Oscar Nominated for ‘Emancipation’?
- Danielle Deadwyler Gives an Oscar-Worthy Performance in ‘Till,’ But Will Enough Voters Watch the Film?
- Composer Hildur Guðnadóttir Goes for Double Oscar Nominations as ‘Tár’ Music Is Deemed Eligible (EXCLUSIVE)
- ‘Till’ Biopic Features New Original Song Oscar Contender From Jazmine Sullivan and D’Mile (EXCLUSIVE)
- Harry Styles, Emma Corrin and ‘My Policeman’ Cast Will All Go Supporting for the Oscars (EXCLUSIVE)
- How Many Box Office Hits Will the Oscars Allow Into the Best Picture Lineup?
- Ana de Armas in ‘Blonde’ Is the Best Shot for Latina Oscar Attention, and Netflix’s Strongest Acting Contender
- ‘Holy Spider’ Star Zar Amir Ebrahimi Was Banned From Iranian Cinema and Sentenced to Prison. Now She’s a Lead Actress Oscar Contender
- ‘Armageddon Time’ Submits Anne Hathaway for Supporting Oscar Consideration, With Jeremy Strong and Anthony Hopkins (EXCLUSIVE)
- Viola Davis Goes for Lead Actress and History-Making Noms for ‘The Woman King,’ Thuso Mbedu Campaigns Supporting (EXCLUSIVE)
- ‘Empire of Light’ Co-Stars Micheal Ward, Toby Jones Both Campaign for Supporting Actor (EXCLUSIVE)
- Michelle Williams to Campaign for Lead Actress for ‘The Fabelmans,’ Supporting Race Now Wide Open
- ‘RRR’ Team Reacts to India Not Selecting It for Oscars, Urges Academy to Vote for It in Other Categories
- Brendan Fraser Is Back: Believe the Hype About His Oscar Chances for ‘The Whale’
- Can Harry Styles Really Get an Oscar Nomination for Acting?
- ‘Wendell and Wild’ Places Jordan Peele and Henry Selick at the Forefront of Animated Oscar Race
- Steven Spielberg’s ‘The Fabelmans’ Could Be the Oscar Frontrunner for Best Picture
- Mystery Solved! ‘Glass Onion’ Kills at TIFF and Should Be Netflix’s Leading Best Picture Pony
- ‘The Woman King’ Reigns Over TIFF and Hopefully the Oscars Will Notice
- ‘The Inspection’ Carries Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle Union Into the Oscar Race
- Five Things About Oscar Season We Learned at Telluride
- In the Name of the Father: With ‘The Son,’ Hugh Jackman’s Best Actor Oscar Moment Has Arrived
- How ‘Close,’ ‘Holy Spider’ and ‘Sr.’ Highlight the Need for More International and Documentaries in Best Picture
- Taylor Russell Brings Cannibal Magic to ‘Bones and All’ — Will the Academy Bite?
- Despite Florence Pugh’s Fearless Turn, ‘Don’t Worry Darling’ Isn’t a Major Oscar Contender
- ‘Empire of Light’ Is an Old-School Oscar Contender With a Career-Best Performance From Olivia Colman
- Buddy Comedy Duo Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson Enter the Oscar Race for ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’
- ‘Tár’ Could Bring Cate Blanchett Her Third Oscar and Todd Field His First Academy Award
- ‘Women Talking’ Soars at Telluride, Sarah Polley Could Be Third Consecutive Female Director Oscar Winner
- ‘Bardo’ or Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Bleak Outlook on Life That Awards Voters Won’t Understand
- Venice Film Festival Sets the Stage for the International Oscar Race With ‘Bardo’ and ‘Argentina 1985’
- How India’s Action Epic ‘RRR’ Could Bring the Country’s First Oscar Nom in 21 Years
- Is Jordan Peele’s Latest an Oscar Contender? ‘Nope,’ But He Is Our Modern Day Hitchcock
- Who Will Be the Academy’s New President? Meet the Frontrunners to Lead the Oscars
- 19 Oscar Contenders From the Year So Far Include ‘Elvis,’ ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ and ‘Top Gun: Maverick’
- Austin Butler’s Transformation in ‘Elvis’ Will Offer a Little More Oscar Conversation in Best Actor
- ‘Crimes of the Future’ Won’t Cut Into the Oscars, but It’s Time for David Cronenberg to Receive the Honorary Treatment
- How ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ and Tom Cruise’s Need for Speed Could Fly to the Oscars
- There Will Be a ‘Triangle of Sadness’ If Awards Aren’t Given to Ruben Östlund and Dolly De Leon
- ‘Three Thousand Years of Longing’ Could Be Cannes’ First Oscar Best Picture Contender
- ‘Armageddon Time’ Proves Not All Auteur Childhood Portraits Are an Oscar Slam Dunk
- Cannes Oscar Hopefuls Include ‘Elvis’, ‘Armageddon Time’ and ‘Top Gun: Maverick’
- Do ‘Everything Everywhere,’ ‘Northman’ and ‘Unbearable Weight’ Offer More Action Than Awards Voters Can Handle?
- Not So Fast Will Smith, Chris Rock and the Academy: There Are More People Who Deserve Apologies (Column)
- Oscars 2023: Our First Blind Predictions, From ‘Fabelmans’ to ‘Flower Moon’
Awards Circuit Podcast Interview Archives (Film)
- Jonathan Majors on Taking His First ‘Devotion’ Meeting in a Sauna, and What He Learned From the Late Michael K. Williams
- Todd Field on Writing ‘Tár‘ in 12 Weeks, His 16-Year Absence and Why Tom Cruise Told Him During ‘Eyes Wide Shut’ He’d Be a Director
- Micheal Ward Talks ‘Empire of Light‘ and Working With Olivia Colman and Intimacy Coordinator to Create a ‘Dance’ on Set
- Danielle Deadwyler on Auditioning for ‘Till,’ Singing Gospel Songs and Being Inspired by Jasmine Guy
- ‘The Good Nurse’ Star Eddie Redmayne on Playing a Serial Killer Who Weaponized Empathy
- Rian Johnson Talks Making More ‘Knives Out’ Movies After ‘Glass Onion,‘ and If His ’Star Wars’ Trilogy Will Ever Happen: ‘God I Hope So’
- Nina Hoss Talks ‘Tár,’ Being Inspired by Bette Davis and Reading the Script for the First Time: ‘I Think I Only Got Half of It’
- Gina Prince-Bythewood Talks ‘The Woman King,’ Social Media Criticism From ‘Wikipedia Historians’ and Possible Reboot of ‘A Different World’
- ‘Triangle of Sadness’: Dolly de Leon on Filipino Representation and How the Film Changed Her Life
- Jordan Peele on the Challenge of Making ‘Nope’ and ‘Wendell & Wild’ During COVID, and Can Audiences Expect a ‘Key & Peele’ Reboot?
- Adam Sandler Talks ‘Hustle,’ Hosting ‘SNL’ This Season and Being Open to ‘Waterboy’ Sequel: ‘I Love Mama’
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC. Oscar nomination voting begins on Jan. 12, 2023, until Jan. 17, 2023. Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2023.
See the Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories.
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.