Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay – ‘Bones and All’ Is Too Delicious for the Writing Branch to Ignore

Other contenders include 'Living,' 'A Man Called Otto,' 'She Said,' 'White Noise' and 'Women Talking'

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Sept. 30, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Bill Nighy and Aimee Lou Woods in “Living”

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: The most progressive (coolest?) branch of the Academy has long been the Writers Branch. They’ve shown a willingness to embrace films that we normally don’t expect the membership-at-large to do such as “Logan” (2017). Hoping they remain open to cannibal teenagers, because “Bones & All” is well worth considering for its taut and beautiful story, featuring incredible turns from Taylor Russell, Timothée Chalamet and Mark Rylance.

It also may be a no-brainer for AMPAS to fall for “Living” and its scribe Kazuo Ishiguro, one of the most acclaimed and beloved authors, who won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2017. If Bill Nighy is on-board for his first Oscar run in best actor, watch out for Ishiguro, who many know and love because of the independent feature “The Saddest Music in the World” (2003).

Mia Goth is the talk of social media for her work in A24’s “Pearl,” boasting a nine-minute monologue that has people buzzing. We’ve all seen how the Academy treats horror films, seamlessly passing over films like “It Follows” and “Hereditary” despite critical acclaim. A spot for Goth in best actress could be too high a bar to clear, but could the Writers Branch find themselves enamored enough with the writing and recognize it in adapted screenplay? Since its predecessor “X” was released earlier in the year, it’s unknown if it automatically gets deemed “adapted” as other sequels or spin-offs tend to do like “Glass Onion” this year. However, it’s a way to nominate Goth, who is a co-writer with director Ti West.

Let the idea simmer for a bit.

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To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankFilmWriter(s) and source materialDistributor
1“Women Talking”Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)MGM/United Artists Releasing
A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men.
2“Living”Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)Sony Pictures Classics
An English-language adaptation of the script of “Ikiru” (1952), set in London in the 1950s.
3“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)Netflix
Famed Southern detective Benoit Blanc travels to Greece for his latest case.
6“A Man Called Otto”David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman)Sony Pictures
A cranky retired man strikes up an unlikely friendship with his boisterous new neighbors. A remake of the Swedish film from 2015  film “A Man Called Ove.”
5“Bones & All”David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)MGM/United Artists Releasing
Maren, a young woman, learns how to survive on the margins of society.
Next in Line
4“She Said”Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey)Universal Pictures
New York Times reporters Megan Twohey and Jodi Kantor break one of the most important stories in a generation — a story that helped launch the #MeToo movement and shattered decades of silence around the subject of sexual assault in Hollywood.
7“The Whale”Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter)A24
A reclusive English teacher suffering from severe obesity attempts to reconnect with his estranged teenage daughter for one last chance at redemption.
8“Top Gun: Maverick”Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)Paramount Pictures
After more than thirty years of service as one of the Navy’s top aviators, Pete Mitchell is where he belongs, pushing the envelope as a courageous test pilot and dodging the advancement in rank that would ground him.
9“White Noise”Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo)Netflix
“White Noise” dramatizes a contemporary American family’s attempts to deal with the mundane conflicts of everyday life while grappling with the universal mysteries of love, death, and the possibility of happiness in an uncertain world.
10“The Son”Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play by Florian Zeller)Sony Pictures Classics
Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello)Focus Features
12“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby)Marvel Studios
13“Avatar: The Way of Water”James Cameron, Josh Friedman (based on characters created by Cameron)20th Century Studios
14“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi)Netflix
15“Catherine Called Birdy”Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman)Amazon Studios
16“Pearl”Ti West, Mia Goth (based on characters created by West)A24
17“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos)A24
18“The Silent Twins”Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace)Focus Features
19“Happening”Marcia Romano, Audrey Diwan (based on the novel by Annie Ernaux)IFC Films
20“The Wonder”Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue)Netflix
Also In Contention
21“My Policeman”Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts)Amazon Studios
22“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence)Netflix
23“Three Thousand Years of Longing”George Miller, August Gore (based on “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye” by A.S. Byatt)MGM/United Artists Releasing
24“The Pale Blue Eye”Scott Cooper (based on the novel by Louis Bayard)Netflix
25“All Quiet on the Western Front”Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)Netflix
26“Both Sides of the Blade”Christine Angot, Claire Denis (based on the novel by Christine Angot)IFC Films
27“After Yang”Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” by Alexander Weinstein)A24
28“The Batman”Matt Reeves, Peter Craig, (based on the characters created by Bob Kane and Bill Finger)Warner Bros.
29“The Phantom of the Open”Simon Farnaby (based on the book by Scott Murray)Sony Pictures Classics
30“Butcher’s Crossing”Gabe Polsky, Liam Satre-Meloy (based on the novel by John Williams)Saban Films
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“Stars at Noon”Claire Denis, Andrew Litvack, Léa Mysius (based on the novel by Denis Johnson)A24
“Avatar: The Way of Water”James Cameron, Josh Friedman (based on characters created by Cameron)20th Century Studios
“The Bob’s Burgers Movie”To be added20th Century Studios
“After Yang”Kogonada (based on the short story “Saying Goodbye to Yang” by Alexander Weinstein)A24
“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”Dean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Nick Paley (based on the short videos)A24
“The Whale”Samuel D. Hunter (based on the play by Hunter)A24
“Catherine Called Birdy”Lena Dunham (based on the novel by Karen Cushman)Amazon Studios
“My Policeman”Ron Nyswaner (based on the novel by Bethan Roberts)Amazon Studios
“Thirteen Lives”William Nicholson, Don MacPhersonAmazon Studios/MGM
“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”Paul Fisher (based on characters from “Shrek” and the fairytale by Giovanni Francesco)DreamWorks Animation
“Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies”David Marshall Grant, Dan Savage (based on the book by Michael Ausiello)Focus Features
“The Silent Twins”Andrea Seigel (based on the book by Marjorie Wallace)Focus Features
“Both Sides of the Blade”Christine Angot, Claire Denis (based on the novel by Christine Angot)IFC Films
“Happening”Marcia Romano, Audrey Diwan (based on the novel by Annie Ernaux)IFC Films
“The Good House”Thomas Bezucha, Maya Forbes, Wallace Wolodarsky (based on the novel by Ann Leary)Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Ryan Coogler, Joe Robert Cole (based on the comics by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby)Marvel Studios
“Thor: Love and Thunder”Taika Waititi, Jennifer Kaytin Robinson (based on the comics by Stan Lee, Jason Aaron)Marvel Studios
“Bones & All”David Kajganich (based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)MGM/United Artists Releasing
“Three Thousand Years of Longing”George Miller, August Gore (based on “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye” by A.S. Byatt)MGM/United Artists Releasing
“Women Talking”Sarah Polley (based on the novel by Miriam Toews)MGM/United Artists Releasing
“All Quiet on the Western Front”Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell (based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)Netflix
“Blonde”Andrew Dominik (based on the novel by Joyce Carol Oates)Netflix
“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Rian Johnson (based on characters written by Johnson)Netflix
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robbins, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale (based on the characters and novel by Carlo Collodi)Netflix
“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”David Magee (based on the novel by D.H. Lawrence)Netflix
“My Father’s Dragon”Meg LeFauve (based on the book by Ruth Stiles Gannett)Netflix
“Persuasion”Ron Bass, Alice Victoria Winslow (based on the novel by Jane Austen)Netflix
“The Good Nurse”Krysty Wilson-Cairns (based on the book by Charles Graeber)Netflix
“The Pale Blue Eye”Scott Cooper (based on the novel by Louis Bayard)Netflix
“The Wonder”Alice Birch, Sebastián Lelio (based on the novel by Emma Donoghue)Netflix
“White Noise”Noah Baumbach (based on the novel by Don DeLillo)Netflix
“Allelujah”Heidi Thomas (based on the play by Alan Bennett)No U.S. Distribution
“Brother”Clement Virgo (based on the novel by David Chariaridy)No U.S. Distribution
“Top Gun: Maverick”Peter Craig, Justin Marks, Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie (based on characters created by Jim Cash and Jack Epps Jr.)Paramount Pictures
“Lightyear”Angus MacLane, Matthew Aldrich, Jason Headley (based on the characters of “Toy Story”)Pixar
“Butcher’s Crossing”Gabe Polsky, Liam Satre-Meloy (based on the novel by John Williams)Saban Films
“A Man Called Otto”David Magee (based on the novel by Fredrik Backman)Sony Pictures
“Devotion”Jake Crane, Jonathan Stewart (based on the book by Adam Makos)Sony Pictures
“Living”Kazuo Ishiguro (based on “Ikiru” by Akira Kurosawa, Shinobu Hashimoto and Hideo Oguni)Sony Pictures Classics
“The Phantom of the Open”Simon Farnaby (based on the book by Scott Murray)Sony Pictures Classics
“The Son”Christopher Hampton (based on the play by Florian Zeller)Sony Pictures Classics
“The Stranger”To be addedTransmission Films
“Ambulance”Chris Fedak (based on the film “Ambulancen” by Laurits Munch-Petersen and Lara Andreas Pedersen)Universal Pictures
“She Said”Rebecca Lenkiewicz (based on the book by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey)Universal Pictures
“The Bad Guys”To be addedUniversal Pictures
“Black Adam”Adam Sztykiel, Rory Haines, Sohrab Noshirvani (based on the characters from DC Comics)Warner Bros
“The Batman”Matt Reeves, Peter Craig, (based on the characters created by Bob Kane and Bill Finger)Warner Bros.

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

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The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films) – Siân Heder

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