Oscar Predictions: Best Actress 每 The Most Competitive Acting Race Where Anyone Can Win or Be Snubbed

Other contenders include Cate Blanchett, Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler, Taylor Russell and Michelle Yeoh

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Nov. 22, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Actress

TILL, from left: Jalyn Hall as Emmett Till, Danielle Deadwyler as Mamie Till-Mobley, 2022. ph: Lynsey Weatherspoon / © United Artists Releasing / Courtesy Everett Collection ©United Artists/Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Jennifer Lawrence is a previous Oscar-winner for “Silver Linings Playbook” with three other nominations for “Winter’s Bone,” “Joy” and “American Hustle.” Her, alongside Brian Tyree Henry, could be surprising contenders for their work in “Causeway,” and there’s a focus from the studio to get her there.

Could we see for the first time in the 95-year history of the Academy, three women of color occupy the best actress lineup? A category that has only yielded one Black winner (Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball”) and zero Latinas and Asians, is due for a massive facelift. And this field warrants such an occasion with Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”), Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) leading the way.

In addition, also (somewhat) in the discussion is Ana de Armas (“Blonde”), Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”), Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”), Anna Diop (“Nanny”) and Thandiwe Newton (“God’s Country”).

There are still familiar Academy staples in the race such as Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”), Rooney Mara (“Women Talking”) and Emma Thompson (“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”) that could easily take a few spots.

This remains one of the most competitive races overall this year.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

Ana De Armas in ‘Blonde’ Netflix
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
RankNameFilmDistributor
1Michelle Yeoh“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led.
2Cate Blanchett“Tár”Focus Features
Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra.
3Michelle Williams“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen.
4Danielle Deadwyler“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
The story of Emmett Louis Till and the legacy of his mother who pursued justice for her lynched son.
5Viola Davis“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
A historical epic inspired by the true events that happened in The Kingdom of Dahomey, one of the most powerful states of Africa in the 18th and 19th centuries.
Next in Line
6Jennifer Lawrence“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
A US soldier suffers a traumatic brain injury while fighting in Afghanistan and struggles to adjust to life back home.
7Olivia Colman“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
“Empire of Light” is a love story set in and around a beautiful old cinema on the South Coast of England in the 1980s.
8Margot Robbie“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
A tale of outsized ambition and outrageous excess, it traces the rise and fall of multiple characters during an era of unbridled decadence and depravity in early Hollywood.
9Rooney Mara“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
In 2010, the women of an isolated religious community grapple with reconciling their reality with their faith. Based on the novel by Miriam Toews.
10Ana de Armas“Blonde”Netflix
A fictionalized chronicle of the inner life of Marilyn Monroe.
Other Top-Tier Contenders
11Taylor Russell“Bones & All”Amazon Studios
12Emma Thompson“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Searchlight Pictures
13Zar Amir Ebrahimi“Holy Spider”Utopia
14Vicky Krieps“Corsage”IFC Films
15Zoe Kazan“She Said”Universal Pictures
16Emma Corrin“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
17Jessica Chastain“The Good Nurse”Netflix
18Dale Dickey“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
19Letitia Wright“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
20Frankie Corio“Aftersun”A24
Also In Contention
21Florence Pugh“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros.
22Florence Pugh“The Wonder”Netflix
23Mia Goth“Pearl”A24
24Anna Diop“Nanny”Amazon Studios
25Aubrey Plaza“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions
26Elizabeth Banks“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
27Zoe Saldaña“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios
28Sally Hawkins“The Lost King”IFC Films
29Naomi Ackie“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
30Thandiwe Newton“God’s Country”IFC Films
Unranked Possible Contenders
Alisha Weir“Matilda”Netflix
Amandla Stenberg“Bodies Bodies Bodies”A24
Ana de Armas“Blonde”Netflix
Anamaria Vartolomei“Happening”IFC Films
Andrea Riseborough“To Leslie”Momentum Pictures
Anna Kendrick“Alice, Darling”Lionsgate
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Northman”Focus Features
Anya Taylor-Joy“The Menu”Searchlight Pictures
Aubrey Plaza“Emily the Criminal”Roadside Attractions
Bella Ramsey“Catherine Called Birdy”Amazon Studios
Cate Blanchett“Tár”Focus Features
Charibi Dean“Triangle of Sadness”Neon
Constance Wu“Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile”Sony Pictures
Da’Vine Joy Randolph“On the Come Up”Paramount Pictures
Daisy Edgar-Jones“Where the Crawdads Sing”Sony Pictures
Dakota Johnson“Am I OK?”HBO Max
Dakota Johnson“Persuasion”Netflix
Dale Dickey“A Love Song”Bleecker Street
Danielle Deadwyler“Till”Orion/United Artists Releasing
Dianna Agron“As They Made Us”Quiver
Elizabeth Banks“Call Jane”Roadside Attractions
Elizabeth Olsen*“Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness”Marvel Studios
Emma Corrin“Lady Chatterley’s Lover”Netflix
Emma Thompson“Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Hulu/Searchlight Pictures
Florence Pugh“The Wonder”Netflix
Florence Pugh“Don’t Worry Darling”Warner Bros
Frankie Corio“Aftersun”A24
Freida Pinto“Mr. Malcolm’s List”Bleecker Street
Garcija Filipovic“Murina”Kino Lorber
Haley Lu Richardson“Montana Story”Bleecker Street
Jane Fonda“Moving On”No U.S. Distribution
Janelle Monáe*“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Netflix
Jennifer Lawrence“Causeway”A24/Apple Original Films
Jenny Slate“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”A24
Jessica Chastain“The Good Nurse”Netflix
Jessica Chastain*“The Forgiven”Roadside Attractions
Jessie Buckley“Men”A24
Jodie Turner-Smith“After Yang”A24
Julia Roberts“Ticket to Paradise”Universal Pictures
Juliette Binoche“Both Sides of the Blade”IFC Films
Léa Seydoux“One Fine Morning”Sony Pictures Classics
Léa Seydoux*“Crimes of the Future”Neon
Lesley Manville“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris”Focus Features
Letitia Wright“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Marvel Studios
Letitia Wright“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Lyric Ross“Wendell and Wild”Netflix
Manal Issa“The Swimmers”Netflix
Margaret Qualley“Stars at Noon”A24
Margot Robbie“Amsterdam”20th Century Studios
Margot Robbie“Babylon”Paramount Pictures
Mia Goth“Pearl”A24
Michelle Williams“The Fabelmans”Universal Pictures
Michelle Yeoh“Everything Everywhere All at Once”A24
Naomi Ackie“I Wanna Dance With Somebody”Sony Pictures
Natalie Portman*“Thor: Love and Thunder”Marvel Studios
Nathalie Issa“The Swimmers”Netflix
Olivia Colman“Empire of Light”Searchlight Pictures
Penélope Cruz“Official Competition”IFC Films
Regina Hall“Master”Amazon Studios
Regina Hall“Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”Universal Pictures
Rooney Mara*“Women Talking”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Sally Hawkins“The Lost King”IFC Films
Sandra Drzymalska“EO”Janus Films and Sideshow
Saoirse Ronan“See How They Run”Searchlight Pictures
Sigourney Weaver“The Good House”Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Sosie Bacon“Smile”Paramount Pictures
Tamara Lawrance“The Silent Twins”Focus Features
Tang Wei“Decision to Leave”Mubi
Taylor Russell“Bones & All”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Tessa Thompson“The Listener”No U.S. Distribution
Thandiwe Newton“All the Old Knives”Amazon Studios
Thandiwe Newton“God’s Country”IFC Films
Tilda Swinton“Three Thousand Years of Longing”MGM/United Artists Releasing
Vicky Krieps“Corsage”IFC Films
Viola Davis“The Woman King”Sony Pictures
Virginie Efira“Paris Memories”Pathé
Zar Amir Ebrahimi“Holy Spider”Utopia
Zaris-Angel Hator“The Sea Beast”Netflix
Zoe Kazan“She Said”Universal Pictures
Zoe Saldaña“Avatar: The Way of Water”20th Century Studios

2023 Academy Awards Predictions

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: Jessica Chastain, "The Eyes of Tammy Faye" (Searchlight Pictures)

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