Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Belfast’ and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Could Lead the Tally

Other strong awards contenders include "Belfast," "Dune," "King Richard," "Licorice Pizza" and "West Side Story."

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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UPDATED: Jan 21, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The nominations for the SAG Awards gave significant boosts to Ridley Scott’s “House of Gucci,” and along with 14 mentions on the BAFTA longlists, you have to wonder if it can still make a play in the best picture race despite the reviews. Co-leading the SAG noms was Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” but it missed out on a crucial ensemble nomination. 

Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” did nab ensemble and supporting actress. Still, both of the supporting actors, Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds missed out, questioning its popularity with the actors’ branch.

Films that went up in other rankings include Sian Heder’s “CODA,” Cary Joji Fukanaga’s “No Time to Die” and Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up.” Dropping in the charts, Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” after the ensemble snub and “Drive My Car” after being omitted from the BAFTA longlist for best film, even though it was mentioned for directing and adapted screenplay.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022) – coming soon
Awards Season Calendar


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Courtesy of Kirsty Griffin/Netflix
1 “Belfast” Focus Features Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas
2 “The Power of the Dog” Netflix Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian
3 “CODA” Apple Original Films Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger, Jerôme Seydoux
4 “King Richard” Warner Bros Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith
5 “Dune” Warner Bros Cale Boyter, Joe Caracciolo Jr, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
6 “West Side Story” 20th Century Studios Kristie Macosko Krieger, Kevin McCollum, Steven Spielberg
7 “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi
8 “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Apple Original Films/A24 Joel Coen, Robert Graf, Frances McDormand
9 “Don’t Look Up” Netflix Adam McKay, Kevin Messick, Scott Stuber, Betsy Koch, Todd Schulman
10 “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Netflix Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Julie Oh
11 “No Time to Die” MGM/United Artists Releasing Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli
12 “Being the Ricardos” Amazon Studios Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch
13 “Nightmare Alley” Searchlight Pictures J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro, Bradley Cooper
14 “House of Gucci” MGM/United Artists Releasing Ridley Scott, Giannina Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Mark Huffam
15 “Parallel Mothers” Sony Pictures Classics Agustín Almodóvar, Pedro Almodóvar
16 “Drive My Car” Janus Films/Sideshow Tsuyoshi Gorô, Misaki Kawamura, Osamu Kubota, Sachio Matsushita, Yoshito Nakabe, Keiji Okumura, Jin Suzuki, Akihisa Yamamoto
17 “The Lost Daughter” Netflix Charlie Dorfman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Osnat Handelsman-Keren, Talia Kleinhendler
18 “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Sony Pictures Kevin Feige, Amy Pascal
19 “The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun” Searchlight Pictures Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales
20 “C’mon C’mon” A24 Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White
21 “Encanto” Walt Disney Pictures Clark Spencer, Yvett Merino
22 “Spencer” Neon and Topic Studios Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín, Paul Webster
23 “The Harder They Fall” Netflix Lawrence Bender, Jay-Z, James Lassiter, Jeymes Samuel
24 “Last Night in Soho” Focus Features Nira Park, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Edgar Wright
25 “Flee” Neon Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen
26 “A Hero” Amazon Studios Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy
27 “Passing” Netflix Nina Yang Bongiovi, Rebecca Hall, Margot Hand, Forest Whitaker
28 “Cyrano” MGM/United Artists Releasing Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Guy Heeley
29 “The Last Duel” 20th Century Studios Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Jennifer Fox, Nicole Holofcener, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck
30 “Red Rocket” A24 Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, Alex Saks, Shih-Ching Tsou

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022