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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: March 24, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY

Paul Thomas Anderson is up to a whopping 11 career Oscar nominations with his three noms for “Licorice Pizza” in best picture, directing and original screenplay. Kenneth Branagh duplicated those exact mentions for his film “Belfast,” which had the British filmmaker making history as the first person to be nominated in seven different Oscar categories. He has eight total noms in his career, with no win yet.

Personal filmmaking is always an added touch. Writer, director and producer Kenneth Branagh is a beloved and respected figure in Hollywood, proven by five previous nominations before this year. He is now the first person to be nominated in seven separate categories.

It could go down the route of “Spotlight,” which only won best picture and original screenplay. Or, to create even more chaos, “Belfast” could go down the path of “The Broadway Melody” (1929), “Grand Hotel” (1932) and “Mutiny on the Bounty” (1935) — three films that won only best picture in their respective years. If the anti-streamer bias is still relevant, then the Focus Features-backed film is the leading contender to take home the prize of the lot.

The “Don’t Look Up” win at the Writers Guild of America for original screenplay was a breath of fresh air to its campaign, showing that it can still win that prize.

Noteworthy is the win of the People’s Choice Award at Toronto. If you think that the monochrome drama is pulling a donut on Oscar night, know that not a single winner of the TIFF prize (when it musters an Oscar nom for best picture) has gone home empty-handed. The last few have been “Nomadland” (2020), “Jojo Rabbit” (2019), “Green Book” (2018), “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017), “La La Land” (2016), “Room” (2015) and “The Imitation Game” (2014).

Many awards enthusiasts are attempting to play out an “everyone wins” scenario on Oscar night that would have Anderson, Branagh and Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”) all going home with statues in hand. Many tried this with the crop from 2014, finding ways to give Alejandro G. Iñárritu (“Birdman”), Wes Anderson (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) and Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) one win each. In the end, Iñárritu took home three, while the others took home none.

BAFTA went with “Licorice Pizza,” which was a bit of a surprise while Critics Choice went with “Belfast.” The Writers Guild of America Awards threw a curveball with “Don’t Look Up,” which may have put the ball in Branagh’s court to win it all.

Going with Branagh.

Will win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Could win: “Licorice Pizza” (MGM/United Artists Releasing) – Paul Thomas Anderson
Should win: “Belfast” (Focus Features) – Kenneth Branagh
Should have been here: “C’mon C’mon” (A24) – Mike Mills

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM DISTRIBUTOR WRITER(S)
1 “Belfast” Focus Features Kenneth Branagh
2 “Licorice Pizza” MGM/United Artists Releasing Paul Thomas Anderson
3 “Don’t Look Up” Netflix Adam McKay, David Sirota
4 “The Worst Person in the World” Neon Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
5 “King Richard” Warner Bros Zach Baylin

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Original Screenplay)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Woody Allen has the most wins in original screenplay with three and nominations at 16. Charles Brackett, Paddy Chayefsky, Quentin Tarantino and Billy Wilder won twice. Federico Fellini is the second most nominated writer with six nominations. The most recent winner is Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman.”


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022