Oscars Predictions: Best Documentary Feature – ‘Attica’ and ‘First Wave’ Pick Up Steam

Other contenders include films from Quest Love, Jimmy Chin, Todd Haynes Liz Garbus and Evgeny Afineevsky

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
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Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

UPDATED: Dec 2, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: More to come

The deadline for submissions to the Academy is Nov. 1. The shortlist of fifteen finalists is scheduled to be announced on Dec. 21.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)


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The First Wave Courtesy of National Geographic

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM STUDIO DIRECTOR(S), PRODUCER(S)
1 Flee Neon Jonas Poher Rasmussen
2 The Rescue National Geographic Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
3 The First Wave Neon Matthew Heineman
4 The Velvet Underground Apple Original Films Todd Haynes
5 Attica Showtime Stanley Nelson
NEXT IN LINE
6 Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) Searchlight Pictures Quest Love
7 Who We Are: A Chronicle of Racism in America Sony Pictures Classics Emily Kunstler, Sarah Kunstler
8 Ascension MTV Documentary Films Jessica Kingdon
9 Procession Netflix Robert Greene
10 Julia Sony PIctures Classics Julie Cohen, Betsy West
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Francesco Discovery Plus Evgeny Afineevsky
12 Faya Dayi Janus Films Jessica Beshir
13 Val Amazon Studios Ting Poo, Leo Scott
14 Citizen Ashe CNN Films/HBO Max/Magnolia Pictures Rex Miller, Sam Pollard
15 Pray Away Netflix Kristine Stolakis
16 My Name is Pauli Murray Amazon Studios Julie Cohen, Betsy West
17 The Real Charlie Chaplin Showtime Documentary Films Peter Middleton, James Spinney
18 Introducing, Selma Blair Discovery Plus Rachel Fleit
19 The Sparks Brothers Focus Features Edgar Wright, Nira Park, George Hencken, Laura Richardson
20 President Greenwich Entertainment Camilla Nielsson
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Cusp Showtime Documentary Films Parker Hill, Isabel Bethencourt
22 Becoming Cousteau National Geographic Liz Garbus
23 Roadrunner Focus Features Morgan Neville
24 Mayor Pete Amazon Studios Jesse Moss
25 Rita Moreno: Just a Girl Who Decided to Go for It Roadside Attractions To be added
26 Ailey Neon To be added
27 The Lost Leonardo Sony Pictures Classics Andreas Koefoed
29 Not Going Quietly Greenwich Entertainment Nicholas Bruckman
29 Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry Apple Original Films RJ Cutler
30 Street Gang: How We Got to Sesame Street HBO Max To be added
UNRANKED LISTING
“Speers Goes to Hollywood” yes Docu and Realworks Vanessa Lapa
A Cop Movie Netflix Alonso Ruizpalaios
Acasa, My Home Zeitgeist Films Radu Ciorniciuc
All Light, Everywhere Neon To be added
Apenas el sol (Nothing but the Sun) Film republic. Arami Ullón
Black Power: A British Story of Resistance Amazon Studios George Amponsah
Bring Your Own Brigade Paramount Plus To be added
Can You Bring It: Bill T. Jones and D-Man in the Waters Kino Lorber Rosalynde LeBlanc, Tom Hurwitz
Charm Circle No U.S. Distribution Nira Burstein
Convergence: Courage in a Crisis Netflix Orlando von Einsiedel (UK), Alexander “Lali” Houghton (Peru), Guillermo Galdos (Peru), Juhi Sharma (India), Lieven Corthouts (Belgium), Mauricio Montiero Filho (Brazil), Mohammad Reza Eyni (Iran), Sara Khaki (Iran) and Wenhua Lin (China)
Courage No U.S. Distribution Aliaksei Paluyan
DeAndré#Deandré Storia di un Impiegato No U.S. Distribution Roberta Lena
Django & Django No U.S. Distribution Luca Rea
DMX: Don’t Try to Understand HBO Christopher Frierson
Eyes on the Prize: Hallowed Ground HBO Max Sophia Nahli
Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano No U.S. Distribution Giorgio Verdelli
Fauci National Geographic To be added
Ferguson Rises Independent Lens Mobolaji Olambiwonnu
Final Account Focus Features Luke Holland, John Battsek, Riete Oord
Finding Kendrick Johnson Starz Jason Pollock
For What Remains Abramorama/Imperative Chris Woods
Found Netflix Amanda Lipitz
FRUITS OF LABOR Grasshopper Films/POV Emily Cohen
Grandpa Was an Emperor No U.S. Distribution Constance Marks
Homeroom Hulu To be added
In the Same Breath HBO Documentary Films Nanfu Wang
Jacinta Hulu Jessica Earnshaw
Jagged HBO Alison Klayman
Juice WRLD: Into the Abyss HBO Tommy Oliver
Justin Bieber: Our World Amazon Studios Michael D. Ratner
Karen Dalton: In My Own Time Greenwich Entertainment Robert Yapkowitz, Richard Peete
Keyboard Fantasies: The Beverly Glenn-Copeland Story Greenwich Entertainment Posy Dixon
LFG HBO Max Andrea Nix Fine, Sean Fine
Life of Crime 1984-2020 HBO Documentary Films Jon Alpert
Like a Rolling Stone: The Life and Times of Ben Fong-Torres StudioLA Suzanne Kai
Listening to Kenny G HBO Penny Lane
Los Hermanos (The Brothers) First Run Features Marcia Jarmel, Ken Schneider
Love It Was Not Greenwich Entertainment Maya Sarfaty
Miguel’s War No U.S. Distribution Eliane Raheb
Misha and the Wolves Netflix To be added
Mr. Saturday Night HBO John Maggio
No Ordinary Man Oscilloscope Pictures Aisling Chin-Yee, Chase Joynt
North By Current POV Angelo Madsen Minax
Paper & Glue MSNBC Films JR
Rebel Hearts Discovery Plus Pedro Kos
Republic of Silence No U.S. Distribution Diana El Jeiroudi
Seyran Ates: Sex, Revolution, & Islam Juno Films Nefise Ozkal Lorentzen
Simple as Water HBO Megan Mylan
Sisters on Track Netflix Corinne van der Borch, Tone Grøttjoord-Glenne
So Late So Soon Oscilloscope Pictures Daniel Hymanson
Storm Lake PBS Independent Lens Jerry Risius, Beth Levison
Stray Magnolia Pictures To be added
Taming the Garden No U.S. Distribution Salomé Jashi
The Big Scary “S” Word Greenwich Entertainment Yael Bridge
The Devil’s Drivers XTR and Mark It Zero Mohammed Abugeth, Daniel Carsenty
The Last Forest Gullane Luiz Bolognesi
The Most Beautiful Boy in the World Juno Films Kristina Lindström and Kristian Petri
The Neutral Ground POV CJ Hunt
The Reason I Jump Kino Lorber Jerry Rothwell
The Village Detective: A Song Cycle Kino Lorber Bill Morrison
This Stained Dawn No U.S. Distribution Anam Abbas
Tom Petty: Somewhere You Feel Free No U.S. Distribution To be added
Torn National Geographic To be added
Tranchées No U.S. Distribution Loup Bureau
Try Harder! Greenwich Entertainment Debbie Lum
Tulsa Burning: The 1921 Race Massacre History Stanley Nelson
Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo No U.S. Distribution Augusto Contento
Who Are You, Charlie Brown? Apple Original Films Michael Bonfiglio
Wojnarowicz: F**k You F*ggot F**ker Kino Lorber Chris McKim
Writing With Fire Music Box Films Rintu Thomas
Wuhan Wuhan Starlight Media Yung Chang

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Documentary Feature)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are "Ben-Hur," "Titanic" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are "All About Eve," "Titanic" and "La La Land" at 14. "La La Land" is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar "losers," meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977's "The Turning Point" and 1985's "The Color Purple" at 11 each.


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022