Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie – ‘The Dropout,’ ‘Dopesick’ and ‘The White Lotus’ Could Dominate the Seven Spots

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE EMMYS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE EMMYS HUB
To see old predictions and commentary, click the EMMY PREDICTIONS ARCHIVES
For film awards predictions go toTHE OSCARS HUB

UPDATED: June 27, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: 

The supporting actor limited race is full of double, even some possible triple or quadruple dippers from the same series. There’s lots of internal competition across-the-board for all the leading contenders, which could create a couple of shocking inclusions, and exclusions on Emmy nomination morning.

The incomparable Murray Bartlett, who won the Critics Choice prize for his work as the scene-stealing Armond, seems a no-brainer selection for his first Emmy nomination. As the show contends in several categories, he, along with his co-star Jennifer Coolidge, is locked and loaded to lead the charge once nominations are officially announced, pending any unforeseen surprises.

While many of his co-stars have received the lion’s share of notices, Jake Lacy’s work as spoiled brat Shane Patton is undeniably fabulous. As a result, the HBO limited series could receive multiple acting nominations. Behind his co-star Murray Bartlett, he’s the second-most likely candidate for a nom, as long as he can fend off competitors with “meatier” roles. The talented Steve Zahn could also easily join the lineup with his two co-stars.

With Amanda Seyfried leading the way for Hulu’s “The Dropout” in the lead actress (limited series) race, her co-star Naveen Andrews could come along as a package deal for Emmy attention. A one-time nominee in supporting actor drama for ABC “Lost” in 2005, he’ll be a welcomed return for AAPI actors so frequently ignored by the Academy. But he won’t be alone in that quest.

William H. Macy is a two-time Emmy winner for the miniseries “Door to Door” in 2003 for lead actor and writing. As his stint as Frank Gallagher in “Shameless” ended last year, the next iteration of his career is blossoming, as shown by his outstanding work as the bald and snippy Richard Fuisz in the Hulu series, which sees many of its actors in the running.

An eight-time Emmy nominee, and one-time winner for the informational series “Lost Civilizations” (1995), Sam Waterston delivers an effortless take on George Shultz. He’s also in the conversation (somewhat) for “Grace and Frankie,” and a familiar name can go a long way with Academy voters.

Also submitted for “The Dropout” is Alan Ruck (also contending for supporting actor in a drama series for HBO’s “Succession”), Amir Arison, Dylan Minnette, Michel Gilly, Stephen Fry and Utkarsh Ambudkar (contending for a nom for CBS’s “Ghosts” in lead actor in a comedy series).

“Dopesick” has many men in contention, most notably Peter Sarsgaard, who could finally get recognition from the TV Academy for this drama about the opioid crisis. The Hulu series stands a decent chance at being the leading limited series in the lot, making his nomination seem nearly inevitable, although his co-stars could siphon some votes including – John Hoogenakker, Will Poulter and Michael Stuhlbarg.

Speaking of Stuhlbarg, who is an actor’s actor, respected and beloved by many, he delivers a one-two punch with “Dopesick and HBO’s “The Staircase.” After getting his first Emmy nom for “The Looming Tower” in 2018, a second run at Emmy gold is overdue for the consistently working (and always excellent) thespian.

The other supporting actors from “The Staircase” include Dane DeHaan (also submitted for Apple TV+’s “Lisey’s Story”), Tim Guinee, Patrick Schwarzenegger and Vincent Vermignon.

A jack-of-all-trades, Seth Rogen is a double Emmy-nominated artist — writing for “Da Ali G Show” in 2005 and drama series for “The Boys” last year. As an executive producer on Hulu’s take on the Pamela Anderson and Tommy Lee sex tape scandal, the Canadian actor could land two noms, with his acting work as Rand Gauthier being his best shot at Emmy gold – and possibly for “Pam & Tommy” to be recognized in a major way given the competitive nature of the limited series categories.

That includes his co-star – Nick Offerman, who was all over the TV spectrum in the past year. From hosting the Film Independent Spirit Awards with his wife, Megan Mullally, to delivering fantastic performances in “Colin in Black & White” and “The Great North,” he’s superb as Uncle Miltie in Hulu’s true-life series. Also submitted is Paul Ben-Victor as Richard Alden.

The Western genre is back in full swing, and that could bring country music superstar Tim McGraw to the shortlist for his work as James Dutton in “1883” from Paramount+. Along with his co-star (and real-life spouse) Faith Hill, he could make history, joining a list of only 10 married couples who have won Emmys in history.

Not the only actor in the mix from Taylor Sheridan’s limited series, with seven other actors submitted – Audie Rick, Eric Nelsen, James Landry Hébert, LaMonica Garrett, Marc Rissman, Martin Sensmeier and Tokala Black Elk.

Read more: Variety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The entire television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: Evan Peters, “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)

---

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Supporting Actor Limited Series/TV Movie)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television's most prestigious artistic award. Many records are held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: The rules for this category have changed many times over the years, but as it stands, Beau Bridges is the only actor ever to win this race more than once - "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom" (1993) and "The Second Civil War" (1997).

For nominations: The late Brian Dennehy is the most nominated actor in this category with four nods, followed by Beau Bridges, John Gielgud, John Malkovich, Joe Mantegna and Michael K. Williams with three apiece.

---

2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

• Outstanding Drama Series
  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
  • Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series
• Outstanding Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
  • Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
• Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
  • Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
  • Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
  • Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
  • Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
  • Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series or Anthology Series or Movie
  • Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special
• Outstanding Competition Program
• Outstanding Variety Talk Series
  • Outstanding Variety Sketch Series
  • Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded)
  • Outstanding Variety Special (Live)

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

• Outstanding Television Movie
• Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
• Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
• Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
• Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
• Outstanding Reality Host
• Outstanding Directing for a Variety Series
• Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series
• Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special
• Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special
• Outstanding Animated Program
• Outstanding Short Form Animated Program
• Outstanding Voice-Over Performance
• Outstanding Narrator
• Outstanding Structured Program
• Outstanding Unstructured Program
• Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Series
• Outstanding Documentary or Nonfiction Special
• Outstanding Documentary Filmmaking
• Outstanding Hosted Nonfiction Series or Special
• Outstanding Main Title Design
• Outstanding Main Title Theme Music
• Outstanding Music for Series
• Outstanding Music for Limited Series
• Outstanding Music and Lyrics
• Outstanding Music Supervision

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

• The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.