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Emmy Predictions: Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie – ‘The Dropout,’ ‘Dopesick’ and ‘The White Lotus’ Could Dominate the Seven Spots

Other notable contenders include Ethan Hawke, John Leguizamo, Tim McGraw, Nick Offerman, Clive Owen and Seth Rogen

White Lotus HBO Making a Scene
Courtesy of HBO Max
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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official awards predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis; Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders by television editor Michael Schneider (for Emmys) and Davis (for Oscars); Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly interview series with talent and an expert roundtable discussion; and Awards Circuit Video analyzes various categories and contenders by Variety's leading awards pundits. Variety's unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provide inside reports on all the contenders in this year's awards season races.

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UPDATED: June 27, 2022

2022 EMMYS PREDICTIONS:
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY

The supporting actor limited race is full of double, even some possible triple or quadruple dippers from the same series. There’s lots of internal competition across-the-board for all the leading contenders, which could create a couple of shocking inclusions, and exclusions on Emmy nomination morning.

The incomparable Murray Bartlett, who won the Critics Choice prize for his work as the scene-stealing Armond, seems a no-brainer selection for his first Emmy nomination. As the show contends in several categories, he, along with his co-star Jennifer Coolidge, is locked and loaded to lead the charge once nominations are officially announced, pending any unforeseen surprises.

While many of his co-stars have received the lion’s share of notices, Jake Lacy’s work as spoiled brat Shane Patton is undeniably fabulous. As a result, the HBO limited series could receive multiple acting nominations. Behind his co-star Murray Bartlett, he’s the second-most likely candidate for a nom, as long as he can fend off competitors with “meatier” roles. The talented Steve Zahn could also easily join the lineup with his two co-stars.

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The Dropout — “Old White Men” – 104 — Walgreens is enticed by Elizabeth to seal the deal on a new partnership with Theranos. Ian tries to investigate what’s going on behind closed doors. Elizabeth Holmes (Amanda Seyfried) and Sunny Balwani (Naveen Andrews), shown. (Photo by: Beth Dubber/Hulu) Courtesy of Beth Dubber/Hulu

With Amanda Seyfried leading the way for Hulu’s “The Dropout” in the lead actress (limited series) race, her co-star Naveen Andrews could come along as a package deal for Emmy attention. A one-time nominee in supporting actor drama for ABC “Lost” in 2005, he’ll be a welcomed return for AAPI actors so frequently ignored by the Academy. But he won’t be alone in that quest.

William H. Macy is a two-time Emmy winner for the miniseries “Door to Door” in 2003 for lead actor and writing. As his stint as Frank Gallagher in “Shameless” ended last year, the next iteration of his career is blossoming, as shown by his outstanding work as the bald and snippy Richard Fuisz in the Hulu series, which sees many of its actors in the running.

An eight-time Emmy nominee, and one-time winner for the informational series “Lost Civilizations” (1995), Sam Waterston delivers an effortless take on George Shultz. He’s also in the conversation (somewhat) for “Grace and Frankie,” and a familiar name can go a long way with Academy voters.

Also submitted for “The Dropout” is Alan Ruck (also contending for supporting actor in a drama series for HBO’s “Succession”), Amir Arison, Dylan Minnette, Michel Gilly, Stephen Fry and Utkarsh Ambudkar (contending for a nom for CBS’s “Ghosts” in lead actor in a comedy series).

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DOPESICK, Will Poulter, First Bottle’, (Season 1, ep. 101, aired Oct. 13, 2021). photo: Antony Platt / ©Hulu / Courtesy Everett Collection ?Hulu/Courtesy Everett Collection

“Dopesick” has many men in contention, most notably Peter Sarsgaard, who could finally get recognition from the TV Academy for this drama about the opioid crisis. The Hulu series stands a decent chance at being the leading limited series in the lot, making his nomination seem nearly inevitable, although his co-stars could siphon some votes including – John Hoogenakker, Will Poulter and Michael Stuhlbarg.

Speaking of Stuhlbarg, who is an actor’s actor, respected and beloved by many, he delivers a one-two punch with “Dopesick and HBO’s “The Staircase.” After getting his first Emmy nom for “The Looming Tower” in 2018, a second run at Emmy gold is overdue for the consistently working (and always excellent) thespian.

The other supporting actors from “The Staircase” include Dane DeHaan (also submitted for Apple TV+’s “Lisey’s Story”), Tim Guinee, Patrick Schwarzenegger and Vincent Vermignon.

A jack-of-all-trades, Seth Rogen is a double Emmy-nominated artist — writing for “Da Ali G Show” in 2005 and drama series for “The Boys” last year. As an executive producer on Hulu’s take on the Pamela Anderson and Tommy Lee sex tape scandal, the Canadian actor could land two noms, with his acting work as Rand Gauthier being his best shot at Emmy gold – and possibly for “Pam & Tommy” to be recognized in a major way given the competitive nature of the limited series categories.

That includes his co-star – Nick Offerman, who was all over the TV spectrum in the past year. From hosting the Film Independent Spirit Awards with his wife, Megan Mullally, to delivering fantastic performances in “Colin in Black & White” and “The Great North,” he’s superb as Uncle Miltie in Hulu’s true-life series. Also submitted is Paul Ben-Victor as Richard Alden.

The Western genre is back in full swing, and that could bring country music superstar Tim McGraw to the shortlist for his work as James Dutton in “1883” from Paramount+. Along with his co-star (and real-life spouse) Faith Hill, he could make history, joining a list of only 10 married couples who have won Emmys in history.

Not the only actor in the mix from Taylor Sheridan’s limited series, with seven other actors submitted – Audie Rick, Eric Nelsen, James Landry Hébert, LaMonica Garrett, Marc Rissman, Martin Sensmeier and Tokala Black Elk.

Read moreVariety’s Awards Circuit Emmys Predictions Hub

The nomination round of voting runs from June 16 to June 27. The official nominations for the 74th Emmy Awards will be announced Tuesday, July 12.

The entire television awards season calendar is linked here.

2021 category winner: Evan Peters, “Mare of Easttown” (HBO)


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Netflix
AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:
RANK CONTENDERS SERIES NETWORK
1 Murray Bartlett The White Lotus HBO
2 Naveen Andrews “The Dropout” Hulu
3 Peter Sarsgaard “Dopesick” Hulu
4 Michael Stuhlbarg “Dopesick” Hulu
5 William H. Macy “The Dropout” Hulu
6 Jake Lacy “The White Lotus” HBO
7 Steve Zahn “The White Lotus” HBO
NEXT IN LINE
8 Seth Rogen “Pam & Tommy” Hulu
9 Tim McGraw “1883” Paramount+
10 Nick Offerman “Pam & Tommy” Hulu
OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS
11 Michael Stuhlbarg “The Staircase” HBO
12 Will Poulter “Dopesick” Hulu
13 Sam Waterston “The Dropout” Hulu
14 John Leguizamo “The Survivor” HBO
15 Matthew Goode “The Offer” Paramount+
16 Nick Robinson “MAID” Netflix
17 Clive Owen “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
18 Wyatt Russell “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
19 Ethan Hawke “Moon Knight” Disney+
20 Jon Voight “Ray Donovan: The Movie” Showtime
ALSO IN CONTENTION
21 Arian Moayed “Inventing Anna” Netflix
22 Glynn Turman “Women of the Movement” ABC
23 Dan Stevens “Gaslit” Starz
24 Shea Whigham “Gaslit” Starz
25 Kyle Chandler “Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber” Showtime
26 O-T Fagbenle “The First Lady” Showtime
27 Kyle Marvin “WeCrashed” Apple TV+
28 Christian Slater “Dr. Death” Peacock
29 Walton Goggins “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey” Apple TV+
30 Nick Offerman “Colin in Black and White” Netflix
UNRANKED CONTENDERS
Audie Rick “1883” Paramount+
Eric Nelsen “1883” Paramount+
James Landry Hébert “1883” Paramount+
LaMonica Garrett “1883” Paramount+
Marc Rissman “1883” Paramount+
Martin Sensmeier “1883” Paramount+
Tokala Black Elk “1883” Paramount+
Richard McCabe “A Very British Scandal” Amazon Prime Video
Denis O’Hare “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Evan Peters “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Finn Wittrock “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Isaac Cole Powell “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Macaulay Culkin “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Neal McDonough “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Nico Greetham “American Horror Story: Double Feature” FX
Ben Radcliffe “Anatomy of a Scandal” Netflix
Jason McGuire “Anatomy of a Scandal” Netflix
Joshua McGuire “Anatomy of a Scandal” Netflix
Rupert Friend “Anatomy of a Scandal” Netflix
Hamish Linklater “Angelyne” Peacock
Martin Freeman “Angelyne” Peacock
Joshua Caleb Johnson “Bingo Hell” Amazon Prime Video
Richard Brake “Bingo Hell” Amazon Prime Video
Solomon Golding “Birds of Paradise” Amazon Prime Video
Craig Tate “Black as Night” Amazon Prime Video
Fabrizio Guido “Black as Night” Amazon Prime Video
Keith David “Black as Night” Amazon Prime Video
Mason Beauchamp “Black as Night” Amazon Prime Video
Kim Estes “Bottle Monster” Self-submitted
Ryker Overacker “Bottle Monster” Self-submitted
Eric Lange “Brand New Cherry Flavor” Peacock
Jeff Ward “Brand New Cherry Flavor” Peacock
Pablo Schreiber “Candy” Hulu
Raúl Esparza “Candy” Hulu
Timothy Simons “Candy” Hulu
Abraham Lim “Clickbait” Netflix
Camaron Engels “Clickbait” Netflix
Daniel Henshall “Clickbait” Netflix
Phoenix Raei “Clickbait” Netflix
Wally Dunn “Clickbait” Netflix
Caesar Samayoa “Come From Away” Apple TV+
De’Lon Grant “Come From Away” Apple TV+
Jim Walton “Come From Away” Apple TV+
Joel Hatch “Come From Away” Apple TV+
Paul Whitty “Come From Away” Apple TV+
Tony LePage “Come From Away” Apple TV+
Joe Alwyn “Conversations with Friends” Hulu
Aasif Mandvi “Crush” Hulu
Tyler Alvarez “Crush” Hulu
Benjamin Bratt “DMZ” HBO
Freddy Miyares “DMZ” HBO
Hoon Lee “DMZ” HBO
Jordan Preston Carter “DMZ” HBO
John Hoogenakker “Dopesick” Hulu
Dominic Burgess “Dr. Death” Peacock
Kelsey Grammer “Dr. Death” Peacock
Lawrence Kao “Fistful of Vengeance” Netflix
Patrick Walker “Gaslit” Starz
Manny Jacinto “I Want You Back” Amazon Prime Video
Scott Eastwood “I Want You Back” Amazon Prime Video
Billy Eichner “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Colin Hanks “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Dan Bakkedahl “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Danny Jacobs “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Darren Goldstein “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Taran Killam “Impeachment: American Crime Story” FX
Anders Holm “Inventing Anna” Netflix
Jeff Perry “Inventing Anna” Netflix
Terry Kinney “Inventing Anna” Netflix
Brian Van Holt “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
Dean Winters “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
Kyle MacLachlan “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
Nat Wolff “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
Sam Keeley “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
William Fichtner “Joe vs. Carole” Peacock
Bobby Cannavale “Jolt” Amazon Prime Video
Stanley Tucci “Jolt” Amazon Prime Video
Dipo Ola “Landscapers” HBO
Samuel Anderson “Landscapers” HBO
Clive Owen “Lisey’s Story” Apple TV+
Dane DeHaan “Lisey’s Story” Apple TV+
Ron Cephas Jones “Lisey’s Story” Apple TV+
Snoop Dogg “Live in Front of a Studio Audience: ‘The Facts of Life’ and ‘Diff’rent Strokes'” ABC
Will Arnett “Live in Front of a Studio Audience: ‘The Facts of Life’ and ‘Diff’rent Strokes'” ABC
Comedian CP “Love Life” HBO
Zach Gilford “Midnight Mass” Netflix
Smokey Robinson “Miracle in Motor City” Lifetime
Jon Bass “Miracle Workers: Oregon Trail” TBS
Karan Soni “Miracle Workers: Oregon Trail” TBS
Steve Buscemi “Miracle Workers: Oregon Trail” TBS
Garrett Hedlund “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Gbenga Akinnagbe “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Isaac Powell “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Kit Harrington “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Marquis Rodriguez “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Tobias Menzies “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Zane Pais “Modern Love” Amazon Prime Video
Paul Ben-Victor “Pam & Tommy” Hulu
Christian Lees “Pistol” FX
Jacob Slater “Pistol” FX
Thomas Brodie-Sangster “Pistol” FX
Corbin Bernsen “Psych 3: This is Gus” Peacock
Timothy Omundson “Psych 3: This is Gus” Peacock
Andrew Scott “Pursuit of Love” Amazon Prime Video
Dominic West “Pursuit of Love” Amazon Prime Video
Dash Mihok “Ray Donovan: The Movie” Showtime
Eddie Marsan “Ray Donovan: The Movie” Showtime
Pooch Hall “Ray Donovan: The Movie” Showtime
Carlos Alazraqui “Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon” Paramount+
Cedric Yarbrough “Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon” Paramount+
Ian Roberts “Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon” Paramount+
Robert Ben Garant “Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon” Paramount+
Alfred Molina “Roar” Apple TV+
Bernard White “Roar” Apple TV+
Christopher Lowell “Roar” Apple TV+
Daniel Dae Kim “Roar” Apple TV+
Griffin Matthews “Roar” Apple TV+
Hugh Dancy “Roar” Apple TV+
Jake Johnson “Roar” Apple TV+
Justin Kirk “Roar” Apple TV+
Simon Baker “Roar” Apple TV+
Jake Short “Sex Appeal” Hulu
Daniel Zovatto “Station Eleven” HBO
Gael García Bernal “Station Eleven” HBO
Gael García Bernal “Station Eleven” HBO
Jon Bass “Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber” Showtime
Thomas Dekker “Swimming with Sharks” The Roku Channel
Alan Ruck “The Dropout” Hulu
Amir Arison “The Dropout” Hulu
Dylan Minnette “The Dropout” Hulu
Michel Gill “The Dropout” Hulu
Stephen Fry “The Dropout” Hulu
Utkarsh Ambudkar “The Dropout” Hulu
Frank Dillane “The Essex Serpent” FX
John Ortiz “The Fallout” HBO
Niles Fitch “The Fallout” HBO
Will Ropp “The Fallout” HBO
Robert Ri’chard “The Fight That Never Ends” Lifetime
Aaron Eckhart “The First Lady” Showtime
Kiefer Sutherland “The First Lady” Showtime
David Oyelowo “The Girl Before” HBO
Colton Ryan “The Girl from Plainville” Hulu
Kai Lennox “The Girl from Plainville” Hulu
Rance Nix “The Kings of Napa” OWN
Damon Gupton “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey” Apple TV+
Omar Benson Miller “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey” Apple TV+
Bruce Davison “The Manor” Amazon Prime Video
Nicholas Alexander “The Manor” Amazon Prime Video
Anthony Ippolito “The Offer” Paramount+
Burn Gorman “The Offer” Paramount+
Colin Hanks “The Offer” Paramount+
Dan Fogler “The Offer” Paramount+
Giovanni Ribisi “The Offer” Paramount+
Justin Chambers “The Offer” Paramount+
Patrick Gallo “The Offer” Paramount+
Ed Asner “The Premise” FX
Eric Lange “The Premise” FX
Jon Bernthal “The Premise” FX
Cornell Womack “The Shrink Next Door” Apple TV+
Cornell Womack “The Shrink Next Door” Apple TV+
Jacques Colimon “The Sky is Everywhere” A24/Apple TV+
Jason Segel “The Sky is Everywhere” A24/Apple TV+
Pico Alexander “The Sky is Everywhere” A24/Apple TV+
Dane DeHaan “The Staircase” HBO
Patrick Schwarzenegger “The Staircase” HBO
Tim Guinee “The Staircase” HBO
Vincent Vermignon “The Staircase” HBO
Billy Magnussen “The Survivor” HBO
Danny DeVito “The Survivor” HBO
Peter Sarsgaard “The Survivor” HBO
Glenn Fleshler “The Thing About Pam” Peacock
Josh Duhamel “The Thing About Pam” Peacock
Mac Brandt “The Thing About Pam” Peacock
Sean Bridgers “The Thing About Pam” Peacock
Max Greenfield “The Valet” Hulu
Ben Hardy “The Voyeurs” Amazon Prime Video
Fred Hechinger “The White Lotus” HBO
Michael Ealy “The Woman in the House Across the Street from the Girl in the Window” Netflix
Javier Muñoz “Three Months” Paramount+
Louis Gossett Jr. “Three Months” Paramount+
Viveik Kaira “Three Months” Paramount+
Stephen Graham “Time” BritBox
Billy Zane “True Story” Netflix
Paul Adelstein “True Story” Netflix
Theo Rossi “True Story” Netflix
Wesley Snipes “True Story” Netflix
Will Catlett “True Story” Netflix
Andrew Burnap “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Billy Howie “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Rory Culkin “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Sam Worthington “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Scott Michael Campbell “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Seth Numrich “Under the Banner of Heaven” FX
Darrell Britt-Gibson “We Own This City” HBO
Don Harvey “We Own This City” HBO
Jamie Hector “We Own This City” HBO
Josh Charles “We Own This City” HBO
McKinley Belcher III “We Own This City” HBO
Rob Brown “We Own This City” HBO
O-T Fagbenle “WeCrashed” Apple TV+
Hugh Laurie “Why Didn’t They Ask Evans” BritBox
Carter Jenkins “Women of the Movement” ABC
Cedric Joe “Women of the Movement” ABC
Chris Coy “Women of the Movement” ABC
Ray Fisher “Women of the Movement” ABC
Alex Newell “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” The Roku Channel
John Clarence Stewart “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” The Roku Channel
Skylar Astin “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” The Roku Channel
NOT SUBMITTED
X Alec Baldwin “Dr. Death” Peacock
X Tituss Burgess “Annie Live!” NBC
X Dylan Baker “The Hot Zone: Anthrax” National Geographic
x Lukas Gage “The White Lotus” HBO
X Daniel Dae Kim “The Hot Zone: Anthrax” National Geographic
x Babak Tafti “Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber” (listed in drama category) Showtime
x Gaspard Ulliel “Moon Knight” Disney+

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Supporting Actor Limited Series/TV Movie)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known simply as the Emmys, is television's most prestigious artistic award. Many records are held for both wins and nominations in the near eight decades.

For wins: The rules for this category have changed many times over the years, but as it stands, Beau Bridges is the only actor ever to win this race more than once - "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom" (1993) and "The Second Civil War" (1997).

For nominations: The late Brian Dennehy is the most nominated actor in this category with four nods, followed by Beau Bridges, John Gielgud, John Malkovich, Joe Mantegna and Michael K. Williams with three apiece.


2022 Primetime Emmy Awards Predictions

2022 Creative Arts Emmys Predictions

About the Primetime Emmy Awards (Emmys)

The Primetime Emmy Awards, better known as the Emmys, are given out by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Since 1949, the awards have recognized excellence in American primetime television programming. They are divided into three classes - Primetime Emmy Awards, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards (honors artisan achievements), and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards (recognizes significant engineering and technological contributions). The typical eligibility period is between June 1 and May 31 of any given year. The Television Academy comprises over 25,000 members, representing 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors and various artisans and executives.

  • The 74th Emmy Awards will take place on Monday, Sept. 12, and air on NBC.