Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ANIMATED SHORT

UPDATED: March 24, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY

The animated short race seems down to two very different contenders. On the one hand, you have the money and power behind Netflix partnering with production studio Aardman, pushing “Robin Robin.” But there’s also a possibility for “The Windshield Wiper,” from one of the visual consultants of the Oscar-winning “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” (2018), which has garnered an impressive amount of support. And let’s not forget the most critically lauded film, “Bestia,” which, despite divisive reactions from voters, has captured the ones who love it with its bold storytelling.  

Aardman is a favorite within the Academy, winning with “Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit” (2006) in animated feature, and nabbing additional (and surprising noms) for “The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists!” (2013), “Shaun the Sheep Movie” (2016) and “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” (2021). Teamed up with the streaming power of Netflix, it’s hard to imagine they would be lagging behind any other contender. Still, it’s always tough to gauge when voting opens to the masses. 

“The Windshield Wiper” from Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez Barbosa has been dipping in and out of the conversation, with fans praising its style and visual storytelling. It could be the spoiler in the category, but it’s not clear if it has enough to beat the frontrunner “Robin Robin.” 

“Bestia” marks the first nominations for director Hugo Covarrubias and producer Tevo Díaz, and is one of the most divisive selections based on conversations with voters and those who have given the 16-minute film a chance. It tells the story of Ingrid, who worked in the Chilean Intelligence Directorate (DINA) in 1975. Premiering stateside in 2022 at the Sundance Film Festival, it’s performed incredibly well on the festival circuit, winning the Grand Jury Award at South by Southwest (SXSW). It also picked up the Annie Award for best animated short subject. But in the end, it may be too jarring for members of the masses to get behind. 

Director Joanna Quinn nabbed her second Oscar nomination for animated short with “Affairs of the Art,” while writer and producer Les Mills received his first. The short showcases one family’s eccentric yet endearing obsessions with anything imaginable. The film was nominated at the BAFTA Awards for British short animation, the only nominee from the category to have Oscar crossover, but lost to “Do Not Feed the Pigeons.” 

Director and writer Anton Dyakov nabbed his first nom for “Boxballet,” a winner at the National Animation Awards in 2021. The buzz for the movie has been relatively quiet, but you can never count out a complete shocker in the shorts races. 

Will win: “Robin Robin” (Netflix) – Dan Ojari, Mikey Please
Could win: “The Windshield Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
Should win: “The Windshield Wiper” (The Animation Showcase) – Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez


ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

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Alberto Milego
AND THE NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM DISTRIBUTOR DIRECTOR
1 “Robin Robin” Netflix Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
2 “The Windshield Wiper” The Animation Showcase Albert Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
3 “Bestia” Miyu Distribution Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Diaz
4 “Affairs of the Art” The New Yorker Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
5 “Boxballet” Melnitsa Animation Studio Anton Dyakov

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022