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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

UPDATED: March 24, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY

Dune,” “Dune” and more “Dune” but a conversation with a studio executive has said that “Spider-Man: No Way Home” is going to upset in this category.

Sporting the second-biggest box office opening in history with a $260 million haul — massive even by pre-pandemic standards — the Sony Pictures continues to dominate the box office. Eighteen of the past 21 visual-effects winners were also nominated for production design. The only exceptions are “Spider-Man 2” (2004), “Ex Machina” (2015) and “The Jungle Book” (2016). So odds are, “Dune” is your winner.

Denis Villeneuve’s film as a robust 10 Oscar noms, the second of any film. It’s the sixth film in history to be nominated in every technical category following “Titanic” (1997), “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” (2003), “Hugo” (2011), “Mad Max: Fury Road” (2015) and “The Revenant” (2015). Two of them won for visual effects.

Even though “Spider-Man: No Way Home” is a sure bet to swing home with the first fan-voted trophy at this year’s Academy Awards, according to a survey, it may have to settle for only that “moment.”

This seems like the most locked-up race.

Will win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Could win: “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (Sony Pictures) – Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
Should win: “Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Should have been here: “Eternals”

Precursor Awards Leader:
“Dune” (Warner Bros) – Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
Awards Season Calendar


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Spider Man No Way Home Sony Pictures Releasing / ? Marvel Entertainment / Courtesy Everett Collection

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AND THE NOMINEES ARE:
RANK FILM STUDIO VISUAL EFFECTS TEAM
1 “Dune” Warner Bros Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
2 “Spider-Man: No Way Home” Sony Pictures Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
3 “No Time to Die” MGM/United Artists Releasing Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
4 “Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” Marvel Studios Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
5 “Free Guy” 20th Century Studios Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Visual Effects)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. The magnificent Dennis Muren has a stellar 6 Oscars in this category which include “The Abyss,” “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” and “Jurassic Park.” He also 2 Special Achievement Oscars for “The Empire Strikes Back” and “Return of the Jedi” of the “Star Wars” series. Gordon Jennings and Ken Ralston have five wins each.


2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022